What an outcome market is
An outcome market trades fully collateralised contracts on an event: every Yes and No pair is backed by 1 unit of quote token and always redeems for exactly 1.
An outcome market is a dated contract on an event, with no leverage and no liquidation. BTC above a level at 06:00 UTC, a match winner, the range a price ends in: each pays in one step on a date. HIP-4 requires the whole payout up front, so HyperCore already holds the money and settlement can’t fail for lack of funds (HIP-4).
Say you buy 100 Yes at 0.62. You pay 62 USDC, with no fee on an opening trade.
- The event happens → your Yes pay 100 USDC, a 38 USDC gain before the settlement fee.
- It doesn’t → they pay nothing and you lose the 62 USDC.
Split, trade, settle
Section titled “Split, trade, settle”An outcome has two sides, each a token, usually Yes and No; labels come from sideSpecs in outcomeMeta and can differ, such as Over and Under.
- Split. Lock 1 USDC, receive 1 Yes and 1 No; the USDC stays on HyperCore as collateral (all conversions).
- Trade. Yes and No share one order book: buying Yes at 0.62 is selling No at 0.38.
- Settle. A fraction
ffrom 0 to 1 is posted; every Yes converts tofand every No to1 - fin the quote token, automatically (settlement).
Before settlement a Yes and a No merge back into 1 USDC; at settlement they pay f + (1 - f) = 1. A pair is always worth exactly 1.
A Yes is like a betting slip paying 1 dollar if the event happens, except that traders mint it with its No, an order book prices it, and a standalone outcome may pay a fraction such as 0.66.
The numbers
Section titled “The numbers”| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Collateral behind one Yes and No pair | 1 unit of quote token |
| Quote token | USDC, unless the outcome names another in quoteToken |
| Payout per Yes | f, between 0 and 1 |
| Payout per No | 1 - f |
| Binary settlement | f = 1 (Yes wins) or 0 (No wins) |
| Price range | 0.00001 to 0.99999, in steps of 0.00001 |
| Order size | whole contracts only |
| Leverage and liquidation | none |
| Trading fee | none on opening trades; charged on closing trades and at settlement (fees) |
Reading a price and closing a position
Section titled “Reading a price and closing a position”A Yes at 0.62 reads, loosely, as a 62 per cent market-implied probability.
- Fees are one-sided. Over 7,256 mainnet fills measured by a production deployer, buys were billed nothing and sells were charged.
- Empty books report a mid of 0.5: a placeholder, not a forecast.
- Mids and marks land on half ticks about a third of the time, so trade against the best bid and ask.
- Not every market is a probability. A scalar price is an expected payout fraction, and some templates settle a draw or a void at 0.5 (market shapes).
- There’s no margin to top up. You close by selling, by merging with the opposite side or by holding to settlement.
Where outcome positions live in the API
Section titled “Where outcome positions live in the API”Outcome positions live in spot balances: spotClearinghouseState lists them, the perp clearinghouseState shows nothing. Each side has one encoding written three ways (asset ids):
encoding = 10 * outcome + side side 0 = first sideSpecs entry, side 1 = second
outcome 1, side 0 -> encoding 10coin #10 info, WebSocket and fillstoken +10 balances in spotClearinghouseStateasset 100000010 order asset id (100000000 + encoding)Outcome coins are not in meta.universe; their contexts come from spotMetaAndAssetCtxs, keyed by the # coin.
What has changed since launch
Section titled “What has changed since launch”- The quote asset changed once: outcomes launched in USDH and switched to USDC around 2026-06-06. Read
quoteToken. - New recurring markets open with an empty book and no contracts, until a maker splits collateral and offers both sides.
For the five ways outcomes are arranged, see Market shapes.